Friday, April 01, 2005

Arab Spring? World Spring, BITCH!

Belmont Club today has, as usual, a pretty keen analysis of global events. This post raises a few new items worthy to consider. In regard to "rumors of mass rallies and political movements shaking the former Soviet Union, the Middle East and even North Korea", Wretchard (the pseudonym by which he is known) discusses his thoughts of a power balance shift and hints at a new era and method of American intervention (something I plan to post about a little later):

These developments are widely presumed to favor the United States; and in the narrow sense that collapsing empires play into the hands of the nation which holds the balance of power, this must be true.....The promotion of democracy is at heart an act of faith in the self-organizing ability of nations; it means getting rid of one dictator without necessarily having another waiting in the wings. It is so counterintuitive to disciples of realpolitik as to resemble madness. Or put more cynically, the promotion of democracy is a gamble only a country with a missile defense system, control of space, homeland defense and a global reach can afford to take. If you have your six-gun drawn, you can overturn the poker table. In retrospect, the real mistake the September 11 planners made was to underestimate how radical the US could be. This does not necessarily mean America will win the hand; but it does indicate how high it is willing to raise the stakes.

Something else he hints at got me thinking of whether or not the reason people around the world are reacting so quickly and strongly to this new opportunity for reform is not simply because enough time has passed for people to realize that they've been brutalized and marginalized for so long, because after all, those old decrepit dictatorial systems have been around forever and have been fairly stable until relatively recent. But maybe because those old systems are simply outdated and obsolete for these times (many, many factors to consider), something Wretchard terms "the whole postwar system". And that this modern era we live in right now greatly facilitates the exposure of "evidences of dysfunction" of those outdated systems, and that "proof that the Soviet model, Middle Eastern authoritarianism and to a certain extent transnational liberalism have lost their grip" is much more easily seen because of it. And interestingly enough, he does not exclude the United Nations, in its current form at least, from this hypothesis of outdated falling empires. The fact that all of this was forseen and was the foremost part in the calculus of forcibly intervening in Iraq gives me cause to "raise it" and give crazy mad props to the Wolfowitz's that whipped this (formerly) crazy idea up.

Infdl's Sean directed me to the Belmont Club blog about 6 months ago and I have been a regular reader ever since. It's done taught my ass good and propa, and it belongs in everybody's bookmarks. And that be the way 'tis. You dig?

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